Psellos
Life So Short, the Craft So Long to Learn

The Schnapsen Log

July 27, 2012

As Luck Would Have It (solution)

Martin Tompa

The marriage brings Lore’s trick point score up to 61, so you cannot afford to duck her Q, even with J. This hand appears to be straightforward. Winning your A and cashing ♣T will give you enough trick points to win the deal.

The only thing that can possibly go wrong with this plan is if ♣J is in the stock, which would put you on lead in this position:

Lore: (61 points)
J
AK
♣ —
TK

You: (60 points)

T
♣ TKJ
J

In this case, unfortunately, you can no longer cash ♣T, and in fact you have no winners left in your hand. ♣J is the only bad draw from the stock for you, though, so you have a 4/5 probability of succeeding. (Remember, you know that K is in Lore’s hand, so there are only 5 possible cards remaining for the stock, of which 4 are good for you.)

That’s not a bad plan, but can you protect yourself against that one unlucky draw from the stock, knowing how unlucky you have been lately? Yes, you can, with a ducking ruff. There is no rush to use your A, since you know for a certainty that Lore still holds K in her hand. And there is no point in saving that T, which isn’t a winner anyway. Trump Lore’s Q with T, draw the ♣J from the stock if that is your fate, and then cash A to win the deal.

This ducking ruff is another example of a safety play, protecting yourself against a small probability of failure. But as luck would have it, Peter did order the last piece of Linzertorte while you figured it out.

© 2012 Martin Tompa. All rights reserved.


Comments

blog comments powered by Disqus

About the Author

Martin Tompa

Martin Tompa (tompa@psellos.com)

I am a Professor of Computer Science & Engineering at the University of Washington, where I teach discrete mathematics, probability and statistics, design and analysis of algorithms, and other related courses. I have always loved playing games. Games are great tools for learning to think logically and are a wonderful component of happy family or social life.

Read about Winning Schnapsen, the very first and definitive book on the winning strategy for this fascinating game.

Subscribe

Getting Started

Links for Schnapsen and Sixty-Six

Links in German

Links in Hungarian

Recent Columns

September
Sidestep a Few Landmines, Sep 2
June
Two Last-Trick Problems, Jun 27
May
More Extremes of Luck, May 21
April
Grasping at Straws, Apr 4
March
A New Scheme for Remembering Cards, Mar 23
September
As Luck Would Have It, Sep 9

Archives

2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012